Key facts
- Every standard bet carries the same edge: 2.70% with one zero, 5.26% with two, 7.69% with three. The exception: the five-number bet on a double-zero wheel, 7.89%.
- A$1,000 bet in total costs A$27.03 on average on a single-zero wheel, under any system.
- Martingale from A$5 with a A$500 limit wins 99.06% of cycles and still costs A$1.03 a cycle on average.
- What lowers the cost: a single-zero wheel, La Partage if the table’s help panel shows it, avoiding the five-number bet, and betting less in total.
The maths every roulette strategy runs into
Every roulette bet pays a little less than its true odds, and that gap is the house edge. Layout and rules are in our guide to how online roulette works.
The rules of one Melbourne casino, Crown Melbourne (version 19.0, approved by the Victorian regulator VGCCC on 10 April 2026), describe wheels with 37, 38 and 39 pockets: 1 to 36 plus one, two or three green pockets (0, 00, and 000 or a Crown symbol). On zero, every bet that does not include zero loses.
A straight-up bet pays 35 to 1. With 37 pockets, a fair payout would be 36 to 1. That missing unit is the edge: 1 in 37, or 2.70%.
| Bet | Numbers | Pays | Chance, single zero | Chance, double zero | Average result on A$10, single zero | Average result on A$10, double zero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight-up | 1 | 35 to 1 | 2.70% | 2.63% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| Split | 2 | 17 to 1 | 5.41% | 5.26% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| Street | 3 | 11 to 1 | 8.11% | 7.89% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| Corner | 4 | 8 to 1 | 10.81% | 10.53% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| Six-line | 6 | 5 to 1 | 16.22% | 15.79% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| Dozen or column | 12 | 2 to 1 | 32.43% | 31.58% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| Even money (red or black, odd or even, 1–18 or 19–36) | 18 | 1 to 1 | 48.65% | 47.37% | −A$0.27 | −A$0.53 |
| First Five (0, 00, 1, 2, 3), double zero only | 5 | 6 to 1 | — | 13.16% | — | −A$0.79 |
Payouts: Crown Melbourne Roulette Rules v19.0, read 19 October 2026. Chances and average results: our arithmetic. On Crown’s triple-zero wheel every standard bet, and the Any Green bet at 11 to 1, carries 7.69%. Standard payouts for single- and double-zero wheels are on our roulette payouts page.
Expected loss = house edge × total amount bet. Wikipedia’s roulette article agrees: “no such strategy can statistically overcome the casino's advantage, since the expected value of each allowed bet is negative.”
Past spins do not change the next one: “any two spins of a fair roulette wheel are independent,” writes Duke University’s mathematics department. The Addictions Foundation of Manitoba, a Canadian public body, calls the belief that a result is due after a long absence the gambler’s fallacy.
Progressive systems: what each one changes
A progressive system changes the next bet after a win or a loss. Each bet keeps the same edge, so the expected loss grows with the total bet. Examples: A$5 on red, a single-zero wheel, a A$500 table limit for illustration; your table’s limit is on the table sign or in the game’s help panel.
Martingale
Martingale is commonly described as doubling the bet after every loss, so the first win recovers all previous losses plus one starting bet. The risk is a losing run: the chance of N even-money losses in a row is (19/37)N on a single-zero wheel.
| Losses in a row | Chance, single zero | About 1 in | Chance, double zero | Lost so far | Next bet needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3.571% | 28.0 | 4.039% | A$155 | A$160 |
| 6 | 1.834% | 54.5 | 2.126% | A$315 | A$320 |
| 7 | 0.942% | 106.2 | 1.119% | A$635 | A$640 |
| 8 | 0.484% | 206.8 | 0.589% | A$1,275 | A$1,280 |
| 9 | 0.248% | 402.7 | 0.310% | A$2,555 | A$2,560 |
| 10 | 0.128% | 784.3 | 0.163% | A$5,115 | A$5,120 |
The About 1 in column is for the single-zero wheel. Our arithmetic.
How far can Martingale double under a A$500 limit?
A$5 on red, single-zero wheel; the A$500 limit is for illustration
Bet 8, A$640: over the limit
One cycle ends one of two ways
−A$1.03a cycle, on average
With a A$500 limit, Martingale gets seven bets, A$5 to A$320; the eighth, A$640, is over the limit. A cycle wins A$5 with a 99.06% chance or loses A$635 with a 0.94% chance. On average it costs A$1.03: 0.99058 × A$5 − 0.00942 × A$635. Over 100 cycles, the chance of at least one A$635 loss is 61.2% (67.5% on double zero).
A higher limit makes the loss rarer and larger. At A$1,000, the losing run takes eight bets, has a 0.48% chance and costs A$1,275; over 100 cycles, its chance is still 38.4%.
Paroli (reverse Martingale)
Paroli is commonly described as doubling the bet after every win. Our illustration stops after three wins in a row: A$5 becomes A$40, a A$35 profit. That happens 11.51% of the time (10.63% on double zero). Any earlier loss costs the A$5: frequent small losses, a rare larger win.
D’Alembert
D’Alembert is commonly described as adding one unit after each loss and taking one off after each win. Bets grow slowly: after 10 losses in a row, a 0.128% chance, the next bet is A$55 and A$275 is gone.
Fibonacci
Fibonacci is commonly described as setting bets by the Fibonacci sequence. Our source gives no step rule, so in our illustration each bet after a loss is the sum of the two before: A$5, 5, 10, 15, 25, 40, 65, 105, 170, 275, 445. That is 11 bets inside the limit; losing all 11 costs A$1,160, a 0.065% chance.
Labouchère
Labouchère works from a line of numbers. As commonly described, the bet is the first number plus the last; a win crosses them out, a loss adds the bet to the end. After losses the line and the bets grow. We have not calculated its losing run.
Flat-bet “systems”: James Bond and covering the table
Covering more numbers makes small wins more frequent, but each spin still costs 2.70% of everything on the table.
The James Bond layout, as commonly described, puts A$140 on 19–36, A$50 on the six-line 13–18 and A$10 on zero. It covers 25 of 37 pockets, or 67.6%. We found no neutral source for it, so the layout is our illustration.
How much of the wheel does the James Bond layout cover?
A$140 on 19–36, A$50 on 13–18, A$10 on 0 · one cell = one pocket · result of the A$200 per spin
| Ball lands on | Pockets | Net result |
|---|---|---|
| 19–36 | 18 | +A$80 |
| 13–18 | 6 | +A$100 |
| 0 | 1 | +A$160 |
| 1–12 | 12 | −A$200 |
On average that is −A$5.41 a spin, 2.70% of A$200. On a double-zero wheel it is −A$10.53, or 5.26%.
A$10 each on red and black returns A$20 on 1 to 36 and loses both on zero: −A$0.54 a spin on average. A$1 on each of 1–36 breaks even on those numbers and loses A$36 on zero: −A$0.97. Add A$1 on zero, and every spin returns A$36 for A$37: a certain A$1 loss.
Roulette systems compared
On cost, no system comes out ahead: each loses A$27.03 on average per A$1,000 bet on a single-zero wheel. They differ in how often they end in profit and in what a losing run looks like.
| System | How bets move | How often it ends in profit | A losing run in our example | Expected loss per A$1,000 bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | Double after a loss | 99.06% of cycles | 7 losses: −A$635 (0.94%) | A$27.03 |
| Paroli | Double after a win, stop at 3 wins | 11.51% of attempts | Any loss: −A$5 | A$27.03 |
| D’Alembert | One unit up after a loss, down after a win | Not calculated | 10 losses: −A$275 (0.128%) | A$27.03 |
| Fibonacci | Next number of the sequence after a loss | Not calculated | 11 losses: −A$1,160 (0.065%) | A$27.03 |
| Labouchère | First plus last number of a line | Not calculated | Not calculated | A$27.03 |
| James Bond | Flat A$200 | 67.6% of spins | 1–12 lands: −A$200 | A$27.03 |
| Flat A$5 on red | Flat A$5 | 48.65% of spins | −A$5 a spin | A$27.03 |
Our arithmetic. How often it ends in profit is the share of cycles, attempts or spins, not a forecast for a session.
What actually changes the cost
Three things change the cost: the wheel, the zero rule and the total you bet.
The wheel. A$1,000 bet in total costs A$27.03 on average on a single-zero wheel, A$52.63 on double zero and A$76.92 on triple zero. On a double-zero wheel the five-number bet costs 7.89% instead of 5.26%.
The zero rule. Some tables use a rule called La Partage, commonly described as returning half of an even-money bet when zero lands. There the edge on even-money bets falls to 1.35%, or A$13.51 per A$1,000 bet. The Crown Melbourne roulette rules we read (version 19.0) do not mention it, and we have not confirmed which online tables offer it: check the game’s help panel.
What does A$1,000 of bets cost on average?
Long-run average, under any system
one green pocket (0, 00, 000)
The total bet. More spins cost more, whatever the system; our hub shows what an hour of roulette costs. For side bets and multiplier games, check the return in the help panel. Other games are in our house edge table.
Claims that don’t add up
Winning most cycles is not making money. The Martingale cycle above wins 99 times in 100 and still costs A$1.03 on average, because the rare loss is 127 times the usual win.
No layout wins every spin: covering all 37 pockets returns A$36 for A$37. Paid systems, bots and “predictors” built on past results fail for the reason above: spins are independent.
Online and live roulette: does strategy differ?
No: with the same wheel and payouts, the edge is the same online, live or in a casino. What changes is speed, and with it the total bet per hour. A table’s wheel type and payouts are in the game’s help panel.
Roulette and Australian law
ACMA lists “casino-style games (like poker, blackjack and roulette)” among illegal online services. It says the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 “makes it illegal for gambling providers to offer some online services to people in Australia”, including online casinos. The detail is on our page about Australian online gambling law.
Safer play. Set a budget before the first spin. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858, free and anonymous, 24/7, or gamblinghelponline.org.au. You must be 18 or over. More contacts are on our support resources page.
Roulette strategy FAQ
What is the most successful roulette strategy?
No betting system lowers the cost: on a single-zero wheel each loses 2.70% of the total bet on average. What lowers it is a single-zero wheel, La Partage if the table’s help panel shows it, avoiding the five-number bet, and betting less in total.
Can you win at roulette every time?
No. Even covering all 37 pockets returns A$36 for every A$37 bet. Every bet carries the house edge, so any system can end a session in a loss.
Is Martingale a good strategy for roulette?
It wins often and loses big. From A$5 with a A$500 limit, a cycle wins A$5 99.06% of the time and loses A$635 0.94% of the time, about −A$1.03 a cycle on average.
What is the James Bond roulette strategy?
A commonly described flat layout of A$200: A$140 on 19–36, A$50 on 13–18 and A$10 on zero. It covers 25 of 37 pockets and loses all A$200 when 1–12 lands. On average it costs A$5.41 a spin, 2.70% of the bet.
How much would I win if I bet $100 on roulette?
It depends on the bet. On A$100, a straight-up win pays A$3,500, a dozen A$200 and red A$100, each with your stake back. On a single-zero wheel each of these bets costs A$2.70 on average. Standard payouts for single- and double-zero wheels are on our roulette payouts page.
Can I bet on all 36 numbers in roulette?
Yes. With A$1 on each of 1 to 36, any of those numbers returns your A$36, and zero loses all of it: A$0.97 a spin on average on a single-zero wheel.
How we calculated
Pockets and payouts come from Crown Melbourne’s Roulette Rules, version 19.0. The average result of a bet is the chance of a win times the payout, minus the chance of a loss; the edge is that figure with the sign reversed. A run of N even-money losses has a chance of (19/37)N on a single-zero wheel and (20/38)N on double zero.
The A$5 bet, the A$500 limit, the Fibonacci step and the James Bond layout are illustrations, not casino rules. All figures are long-run averages, not a forecast for a session. We read the documents below and did the arithmetic; we did not play or simulate sessions. Wikipedia’s roulette article prints the same three edges: 2.70%, 5.26% and 7.69%.
Sources
- Crown Melbourne, Table Games Roulette Rules, version 19.0 (wheels, payouts, zero rule, table limits), VGCCC approved 10 April 2026, read 19 October 2026
- Duke University, Department of Mathematics, Gambler’s fallacy (independent spins), United States, read 19 October 2026
- Addictions Foundation of Manitoba, Independence of events (gambler’s fallacy), Canada, read 17 October 2026
- Wikipedia, Roulette (betting strategies, La Partage, house edge cross-check), read 19 October 2026; an encyclopedia, not a rulebook
- Australian Communications and Media Authority, Protect yourself from illegal gambling operators, last updated 6 March 2025, read 19 October 2026
- Australian Communications and Media Authority, About the Interactive Gambling Act, last updated 21 August 2026, read 19 October 2026
- Gambling Help Online, archived copy of 12 October 2026
- Chances, average results, losing runs and A$ amounts are our arithmetic from the payouts in Crown Melbourne’s rules
Written by: Helene Berner · First published: 19 October 2026 · Last updated: 19 October 2026